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Prediction for CME (2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-15T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35664/-1
CME Note: Bright, 3-part CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 2024-12-15T01:25Z. The source of this CME is a long filament stretched from W10 to W60 along the S25 latitude that erupts starting around 2024-12-14T21:50Z with full lift off by 2024-12-14T23:50Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Associated moving/opening field lines are visible along the SW in GOES SUVI 284. Sympathetic eruption appears to occur around/within AR13924 which is visible as brightening in GOES SUVI 195. Additionally, post-eruptive arcades are visible in GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-17T04:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-18T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35666/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=46.0, Lat.=-34.0, Speed=410.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-15T10:35Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-18T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-16T05:21Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-17T12:39Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T16:39Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-19T08:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-18T18:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-21T04:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241215_103500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 37.35 hour(s)
Difference: -35.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-15T15:19Z

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